Menu Close

Coronavirus – our approaches March 5th

Corona virus update from Terry. March 5th

GP, Dr John Campbell from the UK is pretty useful for the latest info.  https://youtu.be/cmIRMHzBZdU

We can make a significant contribution to managing the coronavirus epidemic if it comes to Aberfoyle Park. The most successful approach so far has been for people who think they have been exposed to the virus to self isolate for 2 weeks. This has worked very well in China where the number of new cases each day has actually fallen. 

The other approach is a public education programme through GP surgeries and via the media about avoiding spreading and catching the virus.

Key ideas

1- posters at the front door of a Doctor’s surgery

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2 – Sani-stations outside the doors of GP surgeries, churches, theatres, schools…..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 – Education about hand washing and coughing or sneezing.

 

 

Contagiousness 

The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is a ball with injector pads all over it that inject it’s viral RNA into the cells of our mucous membranes (nose, eyes, throat)

Incubation time on average is 7 days (Can be as low a 12 hours , and up to 14 days or even more)

There are people who are super-spreaders 

A cough can contaminate a surface with Coronavirus for days. 

Touching the surface and then touching your face increases the risk.

Prevention

The best prevention is self isolation for 2 weeks if you think you have been exposed to the Coronavirus virus. This particularly applies if you have recently come from Asia, the Middle East or Italy (as of March 1st 2020)

Hand hygiene is critical in preventing spread of the virus, because the virus can remain alive and infectious on surfaces for days.

Kampf et al in the Journal of Hospital Infection

“Corona viruses can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62–71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05–0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective.”

Methylated spirits is 95% ethanol and 5% methanol, so it will do the job well.

Hand sanitizer made from various oils (tea tree, lavender, lemongrass) will smell nice but is unlikely to be as viricidal as we want.

The hand sanitizer made from vodka contains  too little ethanol. 

Spread of the virus

A person with Coronavirus will infect between two and three other people.

By comparison, each person who catches the seasonal flu will transmit the virus to between one and two people.

The increased contagiousness of Coronavirus along with its ability to survive on surfaces for days gives the Coronavirus it’s epidemigenicity (its ability to cause an epidemic)  56 Countries so far……. what about a pandemic? – an epidemic in lots of countries?

As a pandemic, it could affect 30% of the world population in a year.

Between 1 and 2.5% of those who get it will die, depending on their access to high quality health care.

10% of those affected (3% of the world’s population?) will be left with severe complications for at least a month after infection.

Long term complications will include chronic lung disease, heart disease and kidney disease. This will affect at least 10% of those who catch the virus.

Risk of Death from Coronavirus

0.1% short term mortality in young people, rising rapidly in those over 50.

 

The above chart is early mortality only –  long term mortality and morbidity (chronic diseases) will be greater.

Drive through testing is available in Korea, Scotland, & Ireland – WE NEED THIS MORE FREELY AVAILABLE IN AUSTRALIA

If you think you have Coronavirus ring – 1800 020 080 – self isolate until you get results

You should avoid Dr surgeries and waiting rooms in general because one case of coronavirus will shut down the surgery for 2 weeks. Those people who are waiting in a Dr’s surgery are likely to be there for a reason, are more likely to have heart or lung disease, and don’t want to run extra risks.  

Testing should not be done in a common public facility or area.

Diagnosis has to be managed at a testing facility, or by drive through.

Our plan

When the numbers pick up across Australia, we can all be familiar with these approaches. At a systems level, we will have early detection and isolation protocols in place if we act now. The concern is the Coronavirus coinciding with seasonal influenza giving us a double whammy. So make sure you have a flu vax this year.

Terry Rose

March 5th 2020