Menu Close

Coronavirus – where to from here? – my predictions for the next month.

The rate of increase of cases of Covi-19 has ramped up since about March 4th, as shown on the graph above, so where to now?

As a GP, I studied epidemiology as part of my Diploma of Child Health. I think our Australian numbers have gone logarithmic from a fairly linear baseline over the past 2 months. I have set the onset of that growth to be March 4th when we had only had 60 cases.

If I am right, and the total number of people getting the virus is climbing in a logarithmic fashion, we will know by Friday when, at the current growth rate, the total for Australia will pass 500.. It will be 1000 by March 26, 10,000 by Easter Sunday, and 20,000 in a month.

My point is that we are on the cusp of the same epidemic that is being reproduced in one after the other European country, and keeping students and others home for a week or two will not seem excessive in retrospect. The epidemic is containable if we act courageously now.

The one major change that may have an impact across the country may be the decision to isolate international arrivals. However, we are now seeing a much higher rate of infection from person to person  within Australia. We still should test everyone who is coming into the country.