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Coronavirus – identify and avoid hot spots

If your local school, Uni, or workplace has a case of Covid-19, it is appropriate to avoid that school, Uni, or workplace until at least 2 weeks after the last person with the virus has been identified. It’s a hot spot. Identify and avoid hot spots.

The argument for keeping schools open is certainly not protecting the community at large. ScoMo argues that Singapore has done well and kept the schools open, but Singapore has been much more aggressive on more fronts. By Feb. 1, Singapore had proactively implemented travel restrictions on passengers coming from China. ScoMo made that change 3 days ago.

Do we keep the schools open? Looks like we do for now. Remember Covid-19’s incubation period is quite varied. From a couple of days to three weeks, but clustered around one week. In a few more weeks the closures will start in Sydney schools. We all know how rapidly infections pass through schools. I’ve been watching these min-epidemics for over 40 years. One third of the class gets the infection the first week, one third a week later and after five weeks it’s largely over. These Covid-19 infections will be quite mild in many children.

My guess is that we might have 2000 Intensive Care beds across the country. But 80% have to be occupied most of the time.

Australia’s approach resembles the European approach in general. Too little testing.  Open borders until too late. The epidemic spreading across the school population only partly detected, and then emerging via family spread.

Are our national numbers accurate?
I don’t think so. There has been a 50% increase in official numbers in the past 24 hours. That means that either we are in for a huge explosion of numbers in the next few days or the numbers have been previously underestimated.

Because we have had very restrictive criteria for testing, and been given very limited testing kits by the State Government, we are likely to have missed cases. As a result we are now seeing a surge in numbers as the criteria for testing get relaxed a bit, and as those who were missed previously hand it on and get identified retrospectively.

Is self isolation working?